Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million in this scenario, VanEck says

According to a new report, Bitcoin could rise to $1.3 million and gold may reach $31,000 an ounce if they become the only reserve asset in the world.

The U.S. and other western countries have sanctioned Russia for freezing its central bank’s reserve, which includes the euro, US dollar, and gold, as well as China’s Yuan. This should help’reduce the demand for hard currencies and reserve assets while increasing demand currency that can perform the original functions,’ Van Eck Associates Corp. analysts wrote this week.

Eric Fine, head active emerging market debt, and Natalia Gurushina chief economist for emerging markets fixed income strategy, Van Eck, wrote that they believe Central banks will act as well as private actors.

Analysts wrote that gold and bitcoin are likely options, but other assets like real estate might be viable alternatives.

If gold is the only reserve asset, its implied price will be $31,000 per ounce if it becomes so. This calculation is done by dividing global money, M0, by global gold reserves. The average of the countries with the highest gold holdings is $31,000 The implied price of gold could rise to $105,000 per ounce if it is calculated using M2.

M0 and M2 both refer to monetary supply. M0 is the smallest form of the money supply. It includes all paper and coin currency that is in circulation plus any reserves held by central banks. M2 is a more comprehensive version.

Gold for June delivery dropped $25.6 or 1.3% to $1,927.7 per ounce on Friday.

The report stated that bitcoin is closer to gold than any other cryptocurrency, with a maximum supply of 21,000,000. Analysts believe that the crypto could hit $1.3 million if it is calculated using M0, and $4.8 million if it is used with M2. According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin trades at $46,363, an increase of 1% in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin seems to have a higher upside than gold, even though gold is ‘the simpler initial response by central bank in particular,’ VanEck reported.

The report said that the scenarios were extreme and that the expected prices should be adjusted downward. Investors should at the very least determine a subjective probability of the outcome. They should also choose a limit for the outcome. For example, will Bitcoin or gold be the only reserve asset or will it be shared with other assets.

An investor might believe that there is a 10% chance that gold will become a reserve asset and therefore, the ‘extreme scenario price’ of $31,000 an ounce is a realistic price target of $3100 an ounce. According to the report, they may view that as an attractive upside relative or not to current prices.